Prof G Markets Inflation Is About to Get Worse
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Feb 17, 2026 
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, warns inflation may be higher than CPI suggests and could rise midyear. Liz Hoffman, business and finance editor at Semafor, unpacks internal DOJ politics that shaped recent antitrust decisions. They also touch on why transparency around big tech AI stakes like Anthropic matters for markets.
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CPI Masks Underlying Inflation Trends
- January CPI looked better year-over-year but underlying service inflation and missing October data mask true trends.
- Mark Zandi estimates true inflation is closer to 3% once adjustments and PCE are considered.
October Data Gap Lowers Reported CPI
- The BLS's missing October data likely understates CPI by a few tenths of a percent.
- Mark Zandi expects PCE will show January inflation nearer 3%, not 2% as headlines imply.
Synthesize Multiple Inflation Measures
- Weight multiple inflation measures and third-party data to form a judgment rather than trusting one single index.
- Follow the Fed's approach: evaluate labor market and varied inflation indicators before making decisions.