FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: Why this oil crisis won’t unwind quickly
Mar 30, 2026
Nik Burns, Head of Energy Research at Jarden, offers sharp analysis of oil, LNG and global energy markets. He explains why the Middle East conflict may be a structural shock, outlines scenarios for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and sizes the massive restocking need. He also names potential winners from higher prices and discusses limits on fuel substitution and implications for EV demand.
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Strait Of Hormuz Shock Could Be Structural
- The Strait of Hormuz shutdown may mark a structural shift in global oil markets rather than a short-term spike.
- Nik Burns says ~20 million barrels per day have been cut and this sustained disruption is the “big one” after decades without material long-term supply impact.
Even A Fast Peace Still Leaves A Large Supply Hole
- Even in a best-case rapid peace scenario, cumulative lost supply and repair needs create long rebalancing times.
- Burns estimates around 600 million barrels removed plus damaged upstream facilities, requiring lengthy restocking.
Position For Energy Producers With Oil Exposure
- Consider oil and LNG producers as beneficiaries of higher prices, with different exposures across companies.
- Burns highlights Woodside has ~30% price exposure versus Santos ~15%, so Woodside gets slightly more earnings leverage.