The Best Ever CRE Show JF 4140: How Jobs and Institutions Will Shape CRE in 2026 with John Chang
Jan 4, 2026
John Chang, a seasoned commercial real estate researcher at Marcus & Millichap, shares his insights on the forces shaping the market in 2026. He predicts a slowdown in job growth impacting property absorption and vacancy rates. Chang discusses how policy uncertainties and AI influence hiring, while also analyzing interest rate expectations and inflation risks. He reveals that institutional capital is returning, targeting multifamily and industrial markets, and suggests private investors may find better opportunities in less competitive regions.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Fed Cuts Likely Amid Chair Uncertainty
- Fed cuts are likely in 2026 but policy uncertainty around the next chair injects risk into forecasting.
- Markets expect one to three cuts by year‑end, but political influence could complicate the path.
Inflation Keeps Long Yields Elevated
- Inflation remains sticky (closer to ~3%) and could rise if rate cuts spur growth, keeping 10‑year yields elevated.
- Chang expects the 10‑year to trade roughly between 4% and 4.5% absent major shocks.
Sell Poor Performers, Buy Healthcare Proximity
- If an asset isn't meeting return expectations, sell it and redeploy into higher‑return opportunities now.
- Target healthcare‑adjacent properties if you want stronger growth and income stability.