Daniel Davis Deep Dive MIT Prof Ted Postol: U.S. Iran Missile War
Mar 5, 2026
Ted Postol, MIT professor and missile defense analyst, offers evidence-based critique of current air defenses. He explains hidden tunnel launches and decoys, analyzes videos showing missed intercepts, discusses drone swarms and satellite-guided homing, and warns that interceptor expenditure may be unsustainable. He urges careful reassessment of naval and political risks.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Decoys Threaten To Collapse Missile Defense
- Iran is employing decoys released during reentry, massively increasing apparent targets and collapsing missile defense efficacy.
- Video shows bright upper-stage release then many small objects; Postol warns 20 decoys make correct targeting ~1-in-20 chance.
Official Intercept Claims Contradicted By Video
- Actual intercept rates appear far below official claims; Postol estimates below 5% versus public 87–90% claims.
- He references video evidence and contrasts it with academic and official assertions of high effectiveness.
Personal Clash Over Academic Intercept Claims
- Postol recounts being banned from Stanford seminars by Scott Sagan after publicly contradicting his claims.
- He uses this personal example to criticize academic misrepresentation and non-refereed publications on missile defense.