The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Is it time to “sell America” again?
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Jan 20, 2026 Darius dives into the growing geopolitical tensions affecting the U.S. Treasury market, raising questions about whether it's time to rethink American investments. He highlights the startling outperformance of gold as a hedge against risk, especially as Treasury returns lag. Darius discusses the volatility in response to political events, and warns about overcrowded bullish positioning in markets. He emphasizes the importance of systematic risk management strategies to navigate today’s complex financial landscape.
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Geopolitics Is Shifting Treasury Demand
- A geopolitically driven supply–demand imbalance in the U.S. Treasury market is prompting rotation out of US assets.
- This rotation can occur even with robust U.S. and global economic growth.
Diplomatic Clash Spurs Market Volatility
- President Trump's tariff threats and clashes with European leaders increased cross-asset volatility and pushed gold to record highs.
- Markets moved after his actions tied to Greenland and related diplomatic pressure.
Crowded Bulls Raise Hedge Importance
- Investor positioning is historically crowded bullish with record-low cash and limited downside protection.
- Such crowded bulls and low hedging increase the need for hedges and safe havens.