Bankless The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks | Michael Howell
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Nov 24, 2025 
Michael Howell, a global liquidity analyst and founder of CrossBorder Capital, dives into the intricacies of liquidity cycles that shape asset markets. He explains a critical 65-month cycle impacting everything from Bitcoin to gold. Howell discusses concerns over rising debt maturities, shifts from Fed QE to Treasury QE, and the implications of US stablecoins versus China's gold-backed strategy. His insights on asset allocation and the risk of a forthcoming liquidity crunch make for a compelling listen for anyone curious about the financial landscape.
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Liquidity Drops Lead Market Corrections
- Fed liquidity drops tend to precede market corrections; S&P historically lags Fed liquidity by ~25 weeks.
- Recent liquidity declines may explain current market vulnerability.
Match Allocation To The Liquidity Regime
- Align tactical asset allocation to the liquidity cycle phases: risk-on in rebound/calm, safe assets in turbulence.
- Move to commodities and duration as the cycle peaks and turns down.
Crypto Is Tech Plus Commodity
- Crypto behaves like a hybrid: part tech-stock, part commodity (gold-like).
- Approximately 40–45% of Bitcoin's drivers are global liquidity; rest split between gold-link and risk appetite.
