The Economics Show How long will the Iran energy shock last? With Chris Giles
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Apr 9, 2026 
Chris Giles, FT economics commentator and author on central banks, discusses the Iran energy shock’s scale and timing. He walks through why uncertainty amplifies damage. He contrasts crude and refined fuel moves, explains regional LNG bottlenecks, and outlines when higher prices will hit households and the limits of policy responses.
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Refined Fuels Drive The Real Price Pain
- Refined fuel markets (diesel, jet fuel) have seen bigger price moves than crude because shortages are product- and refinery-specific.
- Giles notes refinery margins have blown out due to mismatched crude types and localised product shortages.
Bottlenecks Make Gas Prices Regionally Divergent
- Geographic bottlenecks matter: US natural gas prices fell while European prices rose ~60% because LNG export capacity is limited.
- Physical constraints on liquefaction and shipping prevent US gas arbitrage to higher-priced markets.
Markets Expect Normalisation By 2027
- Futures markets imply the supply-demand balance returns toward normal by around 2027 for oil and later for gas after Qatari damage.
- Giles reads futures as signalling roughly a multi-year adjustment timeline if markets stabilise.