Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball Framber Valdez to the Tigers & A Look Inside Projections & Pitcher Health Grades
Feb 6, 2026
Jeff Zimmerman, fantasy analyst and author focused on pitcher health and injury risk. Jordan Rosenblum, creator of the Oopsie projection system and projection-methods writer. They discuss Framber Valdez joining Detroit and rotation fits. Jordan explains projection methodology, Stuff+ influence, and defensive metric stickiness. Jeff covers health grades, injury inputs, and roster risk management.
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Episode notes
Stuff+ Improves BABIP and HR Forecasts
- Adding Stuff+ to projections moved accuracy most for BABIP and HR rates rather than K%.
- Stuff+ helps forecast homer and BABIP noise that traditional inputs struggle to capture.
Defense Modeling Needs Position-Specific Recency
- Rosenblum rebuilt defensive projections using Statcast outs and position-specific recency weights.
- More demanding positions (CF, SS, C) require heavier recency weighting because year-to-year stickiness differs by position.
Treat Projection Discrepancies As Signals
- When your projection disagrees widely with the market, double-check inputs and consider model choices like bat speed vs hard-swing rate.
- Use those differences as buy/sell signals but validate before acting.
