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Russia's War Sparked An Internal Power Struggle
- Russia's war with Ukraine triggered a domestic power struggle between the Siloviki (intelligence/FSB) and the military, producing a de facto civil war.
- Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner blamed the military for failures and seized initiative on the front, exposing Kremlin factional fractures and leadership vacuum.
Prigozhin's March Ended With A Mysterious Deal
- Prigozhin marched toward Moscow then suddenly retreated 100 miles from the capital after a deal involving Belarusian leader Lukashenko.
- Lukashenko reportedly flew at midnight with transponders off to Turkey and cut a bargain that let Wagner reposition without losing face.
Western Posturing Could Have Deterred Nuclear Escalation
- The West's military movements and NATO exercises may have signaled deterrence, complicating escalation and incentivizing de-escalation inside Russia.
- Malmgren suggests a Russian military victory might be preferable to Wagner rule because professional officers better safeguard nuclear protocols.