Americano Will Iran descend into civil war?
Mar 2, 2026
Charlie Gammell, historian and former Foreign Office diplomat who worked on Iran and wrote The Pearl of Khorasan, joins to dissect Iran’s political resilience and leadership succession. They probe US warnings and strategic aims, Iran’s regional proxy networks, Gulf energy and Pakistan’s tightrope, and the migration and spillover risks across Europe.
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Strikes As Leverage Not Total War
- The US may be using strikes as leverage to force Iranian concessions rather than to annihilate the regime.
- Charlie Gammell says Trump sees military pressure as a way to extract concessions and possibly secure a diplomatic off-ramp or a deal satisfying both him and Netanyahu.
Nuclear Deals Won't Fix Iran's Regional Role
- Any narrow nuclear deal risks repeating JCPOA problems by freeing Iran to rebuild its regional networks.
- Gammell argues the nuclear issue is regional in nature, and sanctions relief without curbing proxy activity would empower Iran's influence.
The Islamic Republic Is Harder To Break Than It Looks
- The Islamic Republic's resilience is often underestimated and it has institutional depth to survive decapitation attempts.
- Gammell compares past miscalculations like Saddam's invasion and notes Iran's January protests hardened, not collapsed, the regime.