From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano Is This The Next Big Crisis For Markets And Global Economy?
Mar 18, 2026
Liz Hoffman, Semafor business and finance editor and host of Compound Interest, unpacks mounting private credit stress and why slow-moving runs on funds matter. She sketches risks spilling into private equity, flags troubled SaaS loan vintages, and explores tech’s growing sway on government, defense funding, and AI policymaking.
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Private Credit Feels Like A Slow Bank Run
- Private credit is undergoing a slow-moving run similar to a bank run because retail investors are redeeming from semi-liquid funds at quarterly intervals.
- Funds restrict withdrawals to periodic windows, so redemptions play out over quarters rather than days, magnifying stress on firms at the center like Blue Owl.
Private Credit Distress Threatens Private Equity
- Problems in private credit can cascade to private equity because senior secured loans sit above equity and losses there can wipe out equity value.
- Private equity has fewer semi-liquid outlets, so distress may hide until defaults or zeros appear in underlying portfolios.
2021–2023 Vintages Were Underwritten To Growth Not Cash Flow
- Many 2021–2023 private credit vintages were underwritten to revenue growth not profits, leaving overlevered software companies unable to service loans once refinancing arrived.
- Lenders expected a three-year flip to cash-flow underwriting but encountered firms without profits when repayment kicked in.