Financial Sense Newshour Oil Spikes Past $90: Jim Bianco on Inflation Risks, Credit Spreads, and AI Upheaval
Mar 7, 2026
Jim Bianco, market strategist and founder of Bianco Research, offers macro and rate-focused insights. He explains the oil spike and its inflation ripple. He discusses credit-spread stress in tech and BDCs. He explores agentic AI risks to software sellers, jobs, and productivity. He also covers reindustrialization, onshoring, and portfolio positioning amid commodity volatility.
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Short Oil Spike Is Being Treated As Inflationary
- Oil-driven gasoline jumps are being priced as inflation, not just an economic tax, pushing 10-year Treasury yields up ~22 bps in a week.
- Jim Bianco notes gasoline rose 13% (32 cents) in a week, which should add ~0.4 percentage points to CPI for March unless prices reverse.
Backwardation Signals Short Term Oil Shock
- Futures curve shows the oil spike is concentrated in nearby contracts (April ~ $90) while August stays near $72, creating ~16% backwardation.
- Market is signaling a short-term disruption of one to three months, not a sustained multi‑year supply shock.
Let Market Clear Short Oil Supply Shocks
- Let temporary oil-driven inflation be resolved by market mechanisms rather than Fed easing; the Fed should sit this one out.
- Bianco argues subsidies or rate cuts would keep demand high and worsen the supply shortfall price pressure.