AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Prolonged Conflict Could Push Oil To $150
- Prolonged disruption could lift oil to about $150 a barrel under Scenario B.
- Michael Haigh cites ~17% of global supply offline, redirect limits, and a potential 8–9 mb/d deficit after offsets.
Price Versus Physical Shortage Determines Demand Loss
- Demand destruction is limited by oil's inelasticity but physical shortages matter more.
- Haigh expects price-driven loss ~1.2 mb/d so far, rising to >3 mb/d if oil hits $150, plus access issues for refiners in Asia.
SPRs And Spare Capacity Won't Close The Gap
- Strategic reserves and spare capacity cannot fully offset displaced flows.
- Haigh calculates 17 million b/d displaced vs historical 7% shocks, leaving an estimated 8–9 million b/d shortfall after feasible offsets.