One Rental At A Time I Was Wrong Housing Crash Not OVER
Feb 22, 2026
A candid admission about a mistaken housing forecast and what that means for market timing. A Supreme Court tariff ruling and who might get refunds. A quick rundown of upcoming economic data that could move markets. Data on shrinking home prices in several metros and relisting trends. Surprising stats on agent sales distribution and who actually owns rental properties.
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August 2025 Was Not The Housing Bottom
- The host publicly retracts his prior forecast that August 2025 would be the housing transaction bottom.
- January existing-home sales and pending sales remained weak, and relistings/inventory changes undermined the earlier snapback thesis.
Court Ruling Restricts Tariff Vehicle Not Tariffs Themselves
- The Supreme Court limited a presidential tariff authority but did not ban tariffs entirely, creating new legal avenues for future tariff actions.
- The ruling targeted the specific statutory vehicle used, and the president still has ~150 days of unilateral authority to impose tariffs according to the decision's guidance.
Refunds Likely Via Tax Code Not Cash Checks
- Big retailers may expect refunds after the ruling, but the host doubts direct cash refunds to companies or households.
- He predicts relief will likely take the form of tax credits or write-offs rather than IRS-style checks to consumers.