HousingWire Daily How the Iran conflict is making mortgage spreads worse
15 snips
Mar 30, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst tracking mortgage and housing trends, breaks down how the Iran conflict is pushing mortgage spreads wider. He discusses volatile bond and oil moves, why political jawboning failed to calm markets, and how worsening spreads could lift rates toward 7%. Short, sharp takes on market limits and the fragile low-volatility backdrop housing needs.
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Bond Market Rejected Jawboning
- Bond traders stopped buying the White House's jawboning as oil and yields reversed after an initial drop, signaling markets won't accept verbal off-ramps.
- Logan Mohtashami observed 10-year yields rising to ~4.48% while crude hit highs, showing markets pricing real escalation risk.
Bully Ball Works For Tariffs Not War
- Logan contrasts Trump's 'bully ball' off-ramp tactics with fighting regimes that will not easily de-escalate.
- He notes you can't handle a regime fighting for survival the same way you handle tariffs or political posturing.
Market Yields Can Force Political Decisions
- Market dynamics can force policy or political off-ramps when yields hit critical levels — last year the White House changed course at ~4.50–4.60% on the 10-year.
- Logan argues markets, not rhetoric, often dictate policy timing.