Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Einar Tangen: Age of Irrationality - Global Economic Crisis & Nuclear War
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Mar 13, 2026 Einar Tangen, senior fellow at Teihe Institute and CIGI who analyzes international security and economics. He maps three timelines behind the Iran crisis and explains Israel and US roles. He explores Iran’s asymmetric responses, oil shocks that could trigger global recession, and how nuclear rhetoric and declining Western dominance raise the risk of catastrophic escalation.
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Israel's Strategy To Draw In The United States
- Israel pursued a long campaign of exaggerating an Iranian nuclear threat to pull the U.S. into confrontation, dating back to the 1996 Clean Break ideas.
- Einar Tangen traces Netanyahu's repeated warnings and reliance on U.S. military support as a deliberate strategy to neutralize Iran without boots on the ground.
Iran's Asymmetric Leverage Over Global Oil
- Iran prepared asymmetric defenses expecting U.S. attack and can bottle up the Straits of Hormuz, threatening ~20% of global exported oil.
- Tangen notes Iran's missile stock and geography make direct invasion costly and empower economic leverage via chokepoints.
Oil Shock Could Trigger Global Depression
- Disruption to Gulf oil exports could raise prices toward $200–$300 per barrel, risking a global depression.
- Tangen compares 1973's 4x jump from a 7–9% cutoff to a potential 4–5x jump if 20% is removed now.