The Morning Edition

‘Numbers, numbers everywhere’: Interest rate rise likely, but what does it all mean?

Jan 28, 2026
Shane Wright, senior economics correspondent known for explaining Australian economic policy, inflation and markets. He breaks down the drivers of the inflation spike. He explains which indicators the RBA will watch and why airfares, electricity and housing costs matter. He outlines market odds of a rate rise and compares Australia’s position with other countries.
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INSIGHT

Inflation Exceeds RBA Expectations

  • Headline inflation rose to 3.8% while underlying inflation lifted to 3.35%, slightly above RBA expectations.
  • Markets interpreted this as likely prompting an interest-rate rise at the next RBA meeting.
INSIGHT

Transport And Utilities Drive Recent Spikes

  • International airfares jumped over 24% in a month and domestic fares rose about 10%, strongly lifting inflation.
  • Electricity rose sharply as state subsidies ended, pushing Brisbane and Perth inflation above other capitals.
ANECDOTE

Meat Exports And Building Squeeze Prices

  • Beef and lamb prices rose more than 10% because Australia is exporting more to feed US demand after drought reduced US herds.
  • Housing construction costs also rose as a concentrated building push squeezed resources and raised input prices.
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