
Jacobin Radio Jacobin Radio: 2003 All Over Again w/ Kevan Harris
Mar 17, 2026
Kevan Harris, UCLA historical sociologist and Iran expert, maps Iran’s protest cycles and political economy. He unpacks sanctions-driven industrial decline, the IRGC’s corrupt empire, and how repression reshaped dissent. He warns bombing will not spark revolution and outlines regional escalation risks while urging urgent anti-war organizing.
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Bombing Won’t Produce Revolution
- Air strikes and decapitation do not produce popular revolutions from below.
- Kevan Harris: intelligence agencies warned bombing Iran would consolidate the regime, not topple it, repeating a 2003 pattern.
Sanctions Reshaped Iran’s Economic Structure
- Sanctions reshaped Iran’s economy by privileging oil/gas exporters with foreign exchange while industrial firms became uncompetitive and dependent on state subsidies.
- Harris: industrial involution plus dollar scarcity forced the state to prop loss-making firms, weakening broad-based growth.
Elite Paralysis Worsened Popular Grievances
- Elite paralysis and perceived favoritism deepened popular grievances as scarce foreign exchange was allocated to some actors over others.
- Harris: post-12-day war budget shocks forced choices that looked like corruption and fueled protests.

