Columbia Energy Exchange

Iran Conflict Brief: The High Cost of Attacking Energy Infrastructure

4 snips
Mar 19, 2026
Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a leading energy geopolitics scholar and former IEA/BP official. She examines targeted strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure. Short-term market shocks and LNG supply disruptions are explored. Repair timelines and risks to global gas flows are discussed. The conversation also covers implications for Europe, U.S. LNG, and longer-term energy security.
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INSIGHT

Which Trains Were Hit Explains Multi Year Outage

  • Ras Laffan contains 14 trains of varying sizes; damage likely hit one megatrain (~7.8 Mtpa) and one smaller 4–4.7 Mtpa train, explaining multi-year repair estimates.
  • Critical liquefaction components are hard to rebuild, driving long lead times.
INSIGHT

No Quick Fix Means 2026 Supply Could Stall

  • If Qatar's liquefaction can't restart in 2026, incremental global LNG supply for 2026 could be zero and worst-case supply falls back to 2021 levels.
  • No strategic gas stocks exist, leaving markets exposed to sustained shocks.
ADVICE

Adjust Demand Not Rely On Immediate New LNG

  • Expect supply shortfalls to be met mainly by demand-side adjustments like coal switching and industrial curtailment, not spare LNG.
  • Early signs already show coal rising and industrial gas users in Southeast Asia being curtailed.
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