
Columbia Energy Exchange Iran Conflict Brief: The High Cost of Attacking Energy Infrastructure
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Mar 19, 2026 Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a leading energy geopolitics scholar and former IEA/BP official. She examines targeted strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure. Short-term market shocks and LNG supply disruptions are explored. Repair timelines and risks to global gas flows are discussed. The conversation also covers implications for Europe, U.S. LNG, and longer-term energy security.
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Which Trains Were Hit Explains Multi Year Outage
- Ras Laffan contains 14 trains of varying sizes; damage likely hit one megatrain (~7.8 Mtpa) and one smaller 4–4.7 Mtpa train, explaining multi-year repair estimates.
- Critical liquefaction components are hard to rebuild, driving long lead times.
No Quick Fix Means 2026 Supply Could Stall
- If Qatar's liquefaction can't restart in 2026, incremental global LNG supply for 2026 could be zero and worst-case supply falls back to 2021 levels.
- No strategic gas stocks exist, leaving markets exposed to sustained shocks.
Adjust Demand Not Rely On Immediate New LNG
- Expect supply shortfalls to be met mainly by demand-side adjustments like coal switching and industrial curtailment, not spare LNG.
- Early signs already show coal rising and industrial gas users in Southeast Asia being curtailed.

