Bloomberg Surveillance Better-Than-Expected Job Data Resets Fed Bets
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Feb 11, 2026 
Claudia Sahm, a labor-market economist known for recession signals, analyzes quirky January payroll revisions. Diane Swonk, a veteran macro economist, examines uneven labor recovery and K-shaped effects. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s global macro lead, makes the case for a multi-year rotation into international and value. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley CIO, talks AI’s portfolio impact and shifting fixed-income and alternatives positioning.
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Million-Job Downward Revision Alters Last Year's Picture
- The downward benchmark revision totaled roughly a million jobs across months, reducing last year's net job creation.
- That spread between payrolls and unemployment complicates real-time labor market reading.
Immigration Shifts Distort Payroll Signals
- Immigration shifts amplified payroll volatility by altering labor supply abruptly.
- Payrolls look scarier due to supply shocks, while unemployment better captures demand-supply balance.
Unemployment Metrics Guide Fed Decisions
- The unemployment rate and U6 underemployment measure provide a clearer view than headline payrolls.
- Policymakers will focus on those rates to judge whether to cut rates this year.