Net Assessment Are Rising Powers Over?
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Oct 30, 2025 The hosts explore the implications of declining rising powers and the global order stagnating. They discuss demographic shifts, with ageing populations stressing welfare systems, while contrasting youthful demographics in sub-Saharan Africa. The conversation touches on the potential hurdles for transformative technology, the U.S. as a rogue superpower, and political dysfunction hindering reforms. They also weigh the impact of immigration on economic needs versus cultural resistance, examining a path forward for global stability.
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Demography Alone Won't Make New Great Powers
- Countries with stable or growing populations (e.g., parts of Africa) could produce relative rising powers if they develop human capital and political stability.
- But current low education and weak state capacity in many high-fertility countries limit near-term transformation.
AI And Robotics Could Reorder Advantage
- If robotics and AI reduce dependence on low-cost labor, production could shift back to capital-rich advanced economies.
- That shift would alter rising-power dynamics by making capital and AI adoption more decisive than labor supply.
The U.S. Can't Be The World's Sole Caretaker
- Chris says the U.S. cannot indefinitely play global guarantor given limits of scale and past unintended consequences.
- He argues other countries can and should take more responsibility for regional order rather than relying on the U.S.
