Bloomberg Talks Stephen Schork Talks Oil Market Swings, Strait of Hormuz
Mar 25, 2026
Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group and energy markets analyst, breaks down oil price swings and the tug between futures and physical barrels. He explains how Atlantic futures diverge from Asia’s tight supply near the Strait of Hormuz. He outlines market signals, regional shortages, and how strategic reserve releases affect different regions.
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Atlantic Futures vs Asian Physical Premium
- Futures prices (Brent/WTI) can diverge sharply from physical barrels when geopolitical risk is regional.
- Stephen Schork notes Brent/WTI are Atlantic Basin contracts while Oman/Dubai show a $30–$35 premium reflecting shortages near the Strait of Hormuz.
Price Disconnect Shows Shortage Is Regional
- Large discounts in Brent/WTI versus Dubai signal the shortage is localized to the Strait of Hormuz, not the Atlantic Basin.
- Schork cites Dubai trading near $130–$150 while Brent falls, showing a regional supply squeeze despite weaker Atlantic prices.
Model Targets For Prices If Flows Resume
- Expect stepwise price relief if the conflict resolves: first a drop to mid $60s, then deeper if Iran undergoes positive regime change.
- Schork's probabilistic model sets near-term WTI support $85–$102 and targets ~$65 once Strait flows resume.