
Not Dead Yet Nicholas Eberstadt
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Apr 21, 2026 Nicholas Eberstadt, political economist and demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, known for work on birth-rate decline and labor-market trends. He unpacks global fertility collapse and why fewer births matter. He explores why many prime-age men are out of the workforce, links to crime, disability, and screen time. He discusses community remedies and the pressures of automation on jobs.
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Fertility Decline Has Become A Global Revolution
- Global fertility has marched downward since the postwar era and may have already passed replacement level globally, edging many countries toward sustained depopulation.
- Examples: Calcutta and Mexico City near or below one child per woman; South Korea nearly 75% below replacement.
Stated Desired Fertility Predicts Actual Birth Rates
- The single best predictor of fertility is how many children women say they want, reflecting human agency and culture over purely biological models.
- Eberstadt argues this explains cross-country variation better than income or contraception alone.
Smartphones As A Hidden Driver Of Lower Fertility
- Smartphones may have played a revolutionary role in lowering births by changing social imitation and attention, tracking negatively with fertility in many countries.
- Eberstadt posits the iPhone as a cultural technology that increases inward focus and convenience, reducing appetite for childbearing.











