7am “The Law of the Jungle”: How Trump’s war is causing chaos
Mar 5, 2026
Jasmine El-Gamal, former White House adviser and founder of Averos Strategies, brings US Middle East and defence experience. She discusses how the US strikes have risked wider regional war. She explores competing motives behind the campaign. She warns about mission creep, allies’ tightrope, and erosion of international law.
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War Decision Driven By Politics Not Just Strategy
- Trump, Netanyahu and domestic politics jointly shaped the decision to use military force rather than a single motive driving the war.
- Jasmine El-Gamal cites Netanyahu's legal troubles and Trump's election calculus as intertwined incentives pushing rapid escalation.
Public Justifications Clash With Intelligence
- The administration's public justifications for action conflicted with U.S. intelligence assessments about an imminent Iranian threat.
- El-Gamal references Omani mediation and intelligence that Iran was not assessed as imminently threatening the U.S.
Undefined Victory Fuels Mission Creep
- The administration lacks a clear endgame, raising strong risk of mission creep and prolonged conflict.
- El-Gamal warns that shifting goals and undefined victory metrics increase miscalculation and fiscal cost.