
New Books in Political Science J. Michael Cole, "The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island-Nation at the Centre of the New Cold War" (Polity, 2025)
May 6, 2026
J. Michael Cole, Taipei-based security analyst with two decades covering Taiwan, explains why the Taiwan Strait is a geopolitical tinderbox. He traces shifts since the Sunflower Movement and Xi Jinping's rise. He maps Beijing's gray-zone tactics, assesses the risk of conflict amid the Ukraine shadow, and considers how Taiwan and allies can bolster resilience and deterrence.
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Newsrooms Moving To Taiwan Improved Coverage
- Foreign correspondents relocating from China to Taiwan improved international reporting quality and nuance about Taiwan.
- J. Michael Cole cites visa expulsions in China that led many journalists to base themselves in Taiwan, boosting on-the-ground coverage and analysis.
Ma's Engagement Sparked The Sunflower Uproar
- Ma Ying-jeou's 2008 cross-strait engagement aimed to revive Taiwan's economy through trade and tourism deals.
- Cole recounts the Services Trade Agreement and ensuing Sunflower Movement that showed civil society blocking perceived threats to freedoms.
Xi's Rule Hardened Taiwanese Resistance
- Xi Jinping's authoritarian consolidation and actions in Hong Kong hardened Taiwanese resistance to unification.
- Cole argues Xi's personalistic rule produces echo chambers that misread Taiwan and backfire politically.



