Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Claudia Sahm & Jurrien Timmer
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Feb 11, 2026 Conversations cover quick takes on the latest jobs report and why analysts see early signs of an employment turnaround. Benchmark revisions and how the Fed read payroll data get attention. Long-term equity trends are explored using a log Dow chart and an argument for a multi-year secular bull market.
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Writing Shapes Market Understanding
- Claudia Sahm emphasizes written research matters more than spoken remarks for markets and policy.
- She notes revisions and written analysis shaped Fed understanding of labor data before markets reacted.
Fed Anticipated Payroll Revisions
- Claudia Sahm argued the Fed already anticipated negative payroll revisions and incorporated them into policy views.
- The January jobs uptick and lower unemployment were not surprising to policymakers because revisions were known.
Fidelity Visit And The Dow Log Chart
- Tom Keene recounts visiting the Fidelity office in Aruba and praising Jurrien Timmer's charts.
- He used a log chart of the Dow to illustrate secular bull and bear market behavior and milestones.