In it to Win it Doomberg Explains Why Oil Stays Near $95 Despite 8M Barrel Supply Shock
Doomberg joins the discussion to break down the surprising stability in oil markets amid the Iran conflict and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, revealing why prices remain anchored near $95 WTI despite one of the most significant geopolitical shocks in decades.
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Recording Date 3-16-2026. In this interview, Doomberg explains how the global oil market is absorbing a potential multi-million barrel per day supply disruption through a combination of excess global capacity, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and rapid production responses from regions such as U.S. shale, Russia, Canada, Venezuela, and Argentina. He outlines a "supply waterfall" framework, showing how incremental production, inventory drawdowns, and demand destruction can offset even large shocks, keeping prices far below extreme forecasts. According to Doomberg, the market's calm is signaling that the world is not short oil, but rather well supplied, even in crisis conditions.
Doomberg also dives into the mechanics of oil pricing, emphasizing that the quoted "price of oil" depends heavily on contract timing, delivery location, and futures roll dynamics, factors often misunderstood during volatile periods. He highlights how past anomalies, including negative WTI pricing, illustrate the importance of understanding contract structures. Looking ahead, Doomberg expects oil prices to trend significantly lower over the next 12–18 months, arguing that any spike driven by war would be temporary and ultimately unsustainable as supply overwhelms demand. He also explores longer-term implications, including new pipeline infrastructure to bypass chokepoints and the broader political consequences shaping market sentiment.
Key Insights in this episode
✅ Doomberg explains why oil remains near $95 despite a major geopolitical shock ✅ Global oversupply, SPR releases, and rapid production response stabilize prices ✅ Strait of Hormuz disruption exposes risks, but not a true shortage ✅ Markets adjust through "all-of-the-above" supply, rerouting, and substitution ✅ Oil pricing depends on contracts, location, and futures roll dynamics ✅ LNG disruption is smaller in global context than headlines suggest ✅ Long-term outlook points to significantly lower oil prices within 12–18 months
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Chapters
00:00 Doomberg on the Iran War 01:37 Escalation & Risks 05:37 Strait of Hormuz Closure Impact 12:57 Supply Response vs Rerouting 14:38 Understanding Oil Contracts (WTI) 19:47 Fade the Spike? Trading Oil 22:50 Bypassing Hormuz Long-Term 26:07 Commodity Spillover (Sulfur, Metals) 27:04 Political Fallout & GOP Impact 31:56 Election Outlook & Impeachment Risk 35:19 Final Thoughts & Premium Teaser
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