Foreign Policy Live Can China Catch Up on AI?
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Jun 13, 2025 
Jared Cohen and George Lee from the Goldman Sachs Global Institute discuss the escalating AI rivalry between China and the United States. They explore how China's advancements in AI and its rare earths exports could shift the balance of power. The conversation dives into the unpredictability of the tech competition, U.S. export controls, and the impact on global supply chains. They also examine geopolitical dynamics, including the role of swing states like India and Vietnam, and emphasize the need for dialogue to set international AI norms.
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China's Command-Control Edge in AI
- China's command-and-control model offers clear advantages in resource planning and power management for AI development.
- This enables China to innovate at or near the algorithmic frontier with consistent resource mobilization.
Limits of U.S. Export Controls
- The U.S. export controls aim to restrict China's access to AI-critical technologies but face limits due to global supply chain dependencies.
- China dominates the rare earth refining process and can manipulate prices, complicating supply chain strategies.
AI Race Is Ongoing, Not Short
- A hawkish approach to block China's AI progress might be illusory since innovation is already underway there.
- The idea of a short race to artificial general intelligence is debated; competition will be ongoing.