Politics from the New Statesman A look ahead to politics in 2026
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Jan 3, 2026 Ben Walker, a keen political commentator and journalist, joins Anoush Chakelian to forecast the political landscape of 2026. They reflect on the ten-year anniversary of Brexit and its long-term impact. The conversation touches on Reform UK's strategy to engage non-voters and the shifting public sentiments around staying in or rejoining the EU. They also explore the challenges posed by an ageing population and the pressures on social care due to council funding issues. Walker suggests that economic factors, notably cost of living concerns, will dominate political discourse.
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High Turnout Memory From 2016
- Ben Walker recalls voting day in rural North Yorkshire and the unusually high turnout in his village during the 2016 referendum.
- He links that surge to long-lasting political mobilisation in some leave areas which hasn't returned to normal levels.
Reform Targets Non-Voters To Raise Turnout
- Reform UK has a strategy of registering previously non-voting households to increase turnout in leave areas.
- That tactic keeps or raises turnout in by-elections where Reform compete, unlike most parties.
Rejoin Polls Are Misleadingly Variable
- Polling on rejoining the EU varies wildly and contains modelling assumptions about who would turn out.
- Ben Walker warns that strong rejoin leads in some polls are not a guaranteed predictor of future results.