00:00 - Soho Event & New York Conference

00:36 - The Ceasefire Gambit: Why a Deal is Unlikely

01:00 - Trump’s Urgency vs. IRGC’s Deterrence

01:45 - The Tanker Crisis and Global Oil Flow

02:26 - Missile Effectiveness and Defense Interceptors

03:28 - The Trust Deficit and the Ukraine Precedent

05:37 - Market Volatility: Fading the Gap Up

07:13 - Israel’s Existential Stance and Netanyahu’s Incentives

08:25 - The Path to Coercion in the Strait of Hormuz

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Iran cease fire?