Citi Global Real Estate Team Sees Higher Returns, More Positive Supply Outlook in 2026

Three members of Citi’s global real estate research team—Nick Joseph in the United States, Aaron Guy in the U.K., and Howard Penny in Australia—joined the latest episode of the Nareit REIT Report podcast to share their thoughts on regional outlooks and sector performance.

Citi’s overall expectation is for higher real estate stock returns this year versus in 2025. One key theme across all markets is supply and demand, Joseph said. “The supply picture broadly is more encouraging globally,” he noted, while Citi economists are generally “constructive” on global growth this year.

Higher total returns in 2026 are anticipated in the U.S., Europe, Latin America, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. In Australia and China, Citi is expecting about similar performance this year versus last year, while weaker performance is forecast in Hong Kong, Japan, and the Middle East.

REITs are well positioned in the U.S. for 2026, with about a 10% to 15% total return, Joseph said. He commented on the “massive dispersion” of performance within the REIT sector. “That's really what gets us excited about different REIT opportunities because different stocks and different sectors will perform differently and create a lot of different alpha generation opportunities.”