CNBC Business News Update Market Open: Stocks Higher, Crude Oil Prices Lower, More Private Sector Jobs Created In February Than Expected 3/4/26
Mar 4, 2026
Scott Besant, quoted as Treasury Secretary, briefly outlines timing and legal authority for an imminent global tariff change. Neela Richardson, ADP chief economist, discusses surprising private payroll gains concentrated in very small businesses. Sharmanman Masavar-Rahmani, Goldman Sachs economist, provides historical context on market reactions to U.S. military strikes. Multiple short market and commodity moves are highlighted.
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Markets Tick Higher As Geopolitics Weighs
- U.S. markets opened higher as investors tried to recover this week's losses amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Jessica Ettinger noted the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ were all up while crude eased to about $74 a barrel and Bitcoin sat above $71,000.
Stocks Tend To Recover After Middle East Strikes
- Historical data shows U.S. stocks usually recover after military strikes in the Middle East, with equities up roughly 4% eight weeks after strikes.
- Sharmanman Masavar-Rahmani cited a 95% probability that equities are positive after that eight-week window based on 40 years of strikes data.
Small Firms Drove February Private Payroll Gains
- ADP reported stronger-than-expected private payroll gains of 63,000 in February, concentrated in very small firms under 20 employees.
- Neela Richardson highlighted construction, education, and health care as the main contributors and said most gains were low paying.