HousingWire Daily Why mortgage rates are near 6% amid the war with Iran
14 snips
Mar 5, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst who breaks down housing and mortgage data, joins to unpack the market impact of the war with Iran. He explains why mortgage rates hover near 6% while 10-year yields sit lower. Short takes cover oil price moves, bond-market reactions, purchase application trends, seasonality and what to watch for a stronger spring in housing.
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Bond Market Prioritizes Job Breadth Over Headlines
- Mortgage rates near 6% while the 10-year yield sits around 4% because bond markets are downplaying headline risks and focusing on weak job breadth.
- Logan Mohtashami ties this to narrow payroll gains (healthcare/social services) limiting yield repricing despite hotter inflation signals and Iran tensions.
Yields Haven't Fully Priced In Inflation And Geopolitics
- Hawkish Fed rhetoric plus hotter inflation prints should push yields higher, yet they remain subdued because markets haven't fully priced in reacceleration.
- Logan notes the market isn't acting 'normal' and that escalation with Iran is only partially priced in.
1970s Inflation Requires Unrealistic Oil Prices Today
- Replicating 1970s-style inflation would require oil near $400–$450 per barrel, not today's ~$75 WTI, so the 70s analogy is misleading.
- Logan emphasizes the 1970s combined oil shock with massive labor-force growth and booming housing—conditions not present now.