Marketplace All-in-One Consumers were pessimistic before the war. Now what?
Mar 9, 2026
Daniel Ackerman, Marketplace reporter who breaks down the New York Fed consumer expectations survey. Mitchell Hartman, Marketplace reporter and historian who compares today to the 1970s oil shocks. Catherine Rampell, opinion writer on oil markets and macro risk. They discuss surging oil and commodity prices, supply disruptions and gasoline pressures, historical parallels to past oil crises, and how shifting expectations can shape spending.
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Oil Markets React Fast And Are Narrative Driven
- Oil price reactions to the U.S.-Iran conflict can spike quickly and then swing back within days depending on market narratives.
- Catherine Rampell noted Brent hit as high as $119 then traded below $90 partly due to statements from public figures shifting sentiment.
Shipping Bottlenecks Can Extend Fuel Pain For Months
- Sustained disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would keep gas prices elevated for months even after lanes reopen.
- Rampell explained storage and shipping bottlenecks mean normalization could take a couple of months after shipping resumes.
Oil Shocks Can Feed Inflation Expectations And Recession Risk
- A major oil shock today risks becoming self-perpetuating by raising inflation expectations and weakening an already fragile labor market.
- Rampell warned job losses and above-target inflation increase recession risk if energy-driven inflation embeds.