Nine To Noon Aside from oil, how else could the Iran conflict impact on NZ?
Mar 16, 2026
David Burkett, chair of arable farming at Federated Farmers, speaks on how contracts and input costs shape farm choices. Stefan Vogel, Rabobank research GM, explains fertiliser's link to Middle East gas and fuel-driven market ripples. They discuss urea dependence, substitutes and supply chokepoints, plus how farmers are adjusting rotations and fertiliser use in response.
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Urea Supply Risk From Strait Of Hormuz
- New Zealand is exposed to global urea supply because it imports much of its fertilizer and 30% of traded urea passes the Strait of Hormuz.
- Stefan Vogel explains natural gas from the Middle East makes urea production concentrated there, raising NZ price vulnerability when the strait is disrupted.
Farmers Will Cut Fertiliser Use Not Quit Farming
- High fertilizer prices typically change farmer behaviour, reducing usage rather than instantly collapsing production.
- Stefan Vogel says farmers will trim marginal fertilizer use to protect income, slightly cutting feed and yields instead of stopping production.
Global Substitutes Won't Immediately Stabilise Prices
- Disruption to natural gas flows also reduces regional urea production and limits quick substitution from other producers.
- Vogel notes even suppliers outside the Gulf face higher costs, so global prices rise rather than alternative sources instantly filling gaps.