Defense & Aerospace Report Defense & Aerospace Daily Podcast [Mar 04, 2026] Aboulafia & Michaels on Time Machines: Business Aviation’s Dynamic Journey
Mar 4, 2026
Richard Aboulafia, aerospace analyst and market commentator, and Dr. Kevin Michaels, aviation historian and consultant, discuss business aviation’s evolution and how geopolitics like the Iran war ripple through demand. They cover supply-chain strains, engine and turbine competition, repurposing jet engines for power, Cessna’s modular strategy, and the rise and limits of supersonic and light business jets.
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Short Term Air Traffic Hit From Iran Conflict
- The Iran conflict immediately cuts global RPKs and can dent demand in affected airspace.
- Kevin Michaels and Richard Aboulafia note the Gulf region handles ~12% of global traffic and each week of disruption trims overall RPKs by ~0.5%.
Supply Chain Improving But Aluminum Spike Is A Risk
- Supply chains are improving versus recent years but sub-tier suppliers and raw material costs remain structural risks.
- Kevin highlighted aluminum spiking ~50% recently, a direct pressure on aerospace alloys like 2000 and 7000 series.
Suppliers Favor Industrial Turbines And Defense Over Commercial
- Small suppliers can choose lucrative sectors; industrial gas turbines and defense often treat suppliers better than commercial aerospace.
- Kevin cites Chromalloy saying commercial aerospace drives demand first, then industrial gas turbines, then defense and commercial space.
