The Foreign Desk The capture of Nicolás Maduro: a new horizon for Venezuela and American foreign policy?
9 snips
Jan 31, 2026 
Luca Trenta, Associate Professor of International Relations and author, gives historical context on US targeting of foreign leaders. Philip Gunson, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group in Caracas, examines military capacity, the raid’s execution, and legal questions. Tony Frangimowad, Caracas-based journalist and editor, describes street reactions, civic resurgence, and shifts in Venezuelan politics.
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Chavismo's Base Is Shrinking And Shifting
- Tony estimates 22–35% still identify as chavistas, often in poorest or border municipalities dependent on state welfare.
- He suggests Chavez-style emotional political energy may be migrating to Machado's movement.
Raid Exposed Military Decay
- Phil Gunson calls the raid a humiliating defeat for Venezuela's armed forces, highlighting corruption and weakened defence priorities.
- He credits high US military skill and Venezuelan military deterioration for the raid's success.
Cuban Guards Revealed Maduro’s Trust Choices
- Phil explains Maduro trusted Cuban personnel more than Venezuelan officers, hence many Cuban casualties during the raid.
- He links Cuba–Venezuela ties to a long symbiotic security and intelligence relationship.
