The Inquiry Is the revolution in Cuba over?
Mar 21, 2026
Renata Segura, programme director at the International Crisis Group, explains U.S. pressure, the fuel blockade and humanitarian fallout. Lillian Guerra, professor of Cuban and Caribbean history, traces 20th century transformations and the revolution's political economy. They discuss fuel shortages, blackouts, Venezuela’s oil role and whether current strain will force economic opening without full political change.
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How 1959 Radically Reshaped Cuba's Economy
- The 1959 revolution transformed Cuban society by nationalising foreign and large domestic businesses and placing 80% of the economy under state control.
- Lillian Guerra describes 1959 as a year of rapid pro-capitalist then radical change, with 1,500 laws and mobilised militias reshaping daily life.
The Surprise Celebration After Castro's Triumph
- Fidel Castro's victory produced immediate euphoria and rapid reforms that changed lives across classes.
- Lillian Guerra recounts Castro celebrating at his parents' house and discovering the revolution ended sooner than expected, triggering mass street celebrations.
Soviet Oil Created Cuba's Cold War Lifeline
- Cuba relied on Soviet oil from 1960 in exchange for sugar, creating a Cold War-era economic lifeline.
- The USSR supply kept Cuba afloat until the Soviet collapse in 1989, which precipitated a severe economic crisis.