Prof G Markets You Think You're Diversified, AI Disagrees — ft. Torsten Slok
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Mar 13, 2026 
Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo known for macro analysis at the IMF and OECD. He breaks down the Iran conflict’s oil shock and its inflation ripple. He explores how AI reshapes macro channels, jobs, and market volatility. He flags inequality’s role in a K-shaped recovery and stresses the importance of shock persistence and true diversification.
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Oil Shock Will Keep Inflation Elevated
- A $35 rise in oil lifts US headline inflation ~0.7% and core inflation ~0.1% in the Fed model.
- Torsten Slok ties that shock to already-elevated core PCE at 3%, meaning inflation likely stays higher this year.
Higher Inflation Means Higher Rates For Longer
- Higher persistent inflation implies interest rates stay higher for longer, harming firms with cash flows far in the future.
- Torsten warns enterprise software and long-dated cash-flow companies face greater debt-servicing and refinancing stress.
Iran Risk Looks Intense But Potentially Short Lived
- Iran's initial heavy missile/drone firing spiked risk but the daily data shows activity falling close to zero in subsequent days.
- Slok notes policy levers (SPR releases, escorts) and Iran's loss of firepower limit long-term supply disruptions.