
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Iran at war with Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour
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Feb 28, 2026 Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow and Iran specialist at the Carnegie Endowment, offers a compact portrait of Tehran’s moment of peril. He walks through leadership uncertainty and why many insiders wait for Khamenei’s passing. He discusses Iran’s diplomatic isolation, deep but fraught ties to China, and the regional dynamics that shape potential conflict.
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Trump Prefers Talks But Prepares For Action
- President Trump still prefers negotiation but is likely to act because talks probably won't resolve core disputes.
- Trump views Iranian brutality and missile/ proxy programs as red lines, making military options more probable after failed diplomacy.
Gulf States Want Degradation With Managed Fallout
- Gulf leaders want Iran weakened but fear regional blowback and cannot host indefinite U.S. forces.
- Saudi and UAE leaders balance desire to degrade Tehran with worry about missiles and economic fallout close to home.
Israel Focuses On Regime Not Just Capabilities
- Israel prefers more ambitious action aiming at regime change, not just symptom-targeting like missiles or proxies.
- Israelis have intensified operations inside Tehran and see the regime itself as the root cause of threats.

