Volatility Everywhere—CRE Holds the Line, But for How Long?

Markets are sending mixed signals as the Iran conflict stretches into its fifth week. Oil prices surged toward $120, the S&P 500 flirted with correction territory, and borrowing costs for CRE jumped nearly 100 basis points. And yet, the data hasn’t cracked. Consumer confidence came in stronger than expected, retail sales surprised to the upside, and deals continue to close, leaving investors questioning what’s really happening beneath the surface.

Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down the growing recession chatter, including why economists warn that an “everything all at once” scenario could tip the economy and how energy shocks have historically played a central role. They also explore the implications of a K-shaped economy, where the top 20 percent of earners now drive 60 percent of spending, shaping where capital flows and which assets outperform.

Despite the volatility, early LightBox indicators for March point to resilience. Environmental due diligence activity was up 8 percent month over month, and property listings climbed 25 percent year over year, signaling continued pipeline activity. At the same time, new risks are emerging, from the largest multifamily rent drop since 2017 to widening credit pressures.

With strong development pipelines, active industrial deal flow, and continued price discovery in office, CRE is holding—for now. The key question is how long that holds, and what happens when it doesn’t. 

00:48 Overview of Current Economic Climate
02:46 Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales Surprises
06:01 The K-shaped Economy and Its Implications
08:39 CRE Activity Index and Market Trends
11:42 Development and Lending Confidence
14:26 Industrial Market Dynamics
17:18 Office Market Trends and Sales

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