PassivePockets: The Passive Real Estate Investing Show

Scott Trench’s 2026 Playbook: Rates, Rents, and the Office Bet

5 snips

Jan 6, 2026

Scott Trench, a seasoned real estate investor and former CEO of BiggerPockets, shares his insights on the 2025 market and unveils a strategic playbook for 2026. He discusses the challenges and surprises of the past year, like sticky interest rates and resilient stock markets. Scott plans to de-risk by transitioning from high-multiple stocks to paid-off multifamily rentals in Denver. He also explores the dynamics of supply, rents, and an intriguing contrarian investment thesis for office spaces, emphasizing quality operators and long-term strategies.

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ADVICE

Match Aggression To Life Stage

Shift risk posture across life stages: be aggressive early, then protect capital mid-career, and consider reloading later.
Prioritize family and life stability when choosing investment risk as you age.

INSIGHT

Supply Is The Predictable Housing Variable

Supply is the easiest housing variable to forecast because permitted projects are visible and timetables predictable.
2026 will see deliveries slow from historic highs, so absorption timing will be market-specific.

INSIGHT

Immigration Shift Weakens Near-Term Demand

Demand is much harder to forecast and a recent drop in illegal immigration reduced expected population growth.
That weaker demand may delay widespread rent rebound into late 2026 or 2027.

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This Episode

Chris Lopez and Jim Pfeifer sit down with Scott Trench for a frank 2025 recap and a practical 2026 game plan. Scott reviews what he got right (rates staying sticky, supply-driven rent trends) and where the surprises showed up (gold strength, stock market resilience), then opens his playbook: selling a chunk of stocks, buying paid-off 2–4 unit Denver rentals, and allocating a small slice of retirement capital to private credit via a solo 401(k). Looking ahead, Scott focuses on multifamily supply tapering, demand uncertainty, and the 10-year vs. Fed funds dynamic. He also lays out a contrarian Class A office thesis (all equity, patient lease-up, operator quality over leverage) and shares how LPs might think about accessing similar opportunities.

Key Takeaways

Interest rates: policy cuts may not translate to lower mortgages if the 10-year stays elevated
Supply and rents: 2026 likely absorbs the 2024–2025 wave, with rent strength returning market by market
Portfolio moves: swapped high-multiple equities for paid-off small multifamily; reserved retirement dollars for simple-yield private credit
Risk posture: early-career aggression → mid-career capital protection; leverage optionality comes later
Office angle: best-in-market, newer assets with patient, all-equity business plans may offer asymmetric upside
LP lens: prioritize operator track records in one geography, modest leverage, and realistic lease-up/tenant improvement budgets

Disclaimer

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