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Prefer Arguments Before Numbers
- Avoid finalizing noisy reasoning by slapping precise probabilities on speculative claims; prefer argument-level evaluation first.
- Reserve numerical precision for measurement and counting where data and falsification exist.
Numbers Mask The Real Debate
- EA's rigorous debate culture often collapses into a single numeric credence that masks the underlying arguments.
- Numbers alone are poor at conveying the reasoning that should be inspected and debated.
Use Coarse Credences And Value Of Information
- Communicate numerical credences when they change choices or mask disagreements; use coarse granularity (e.g., quintiles) not spurious precision.
- Apply value-of-information thinking: weigh the benefit of waiting for data against opportunity costs of acting now.