WSJ's Take On the Week If Trouble Is Brewing for Banks, Here's Where to Spot It
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Oct 12, 2025 Chris Whelan, a seasoned banking analyst and chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, joins to discuss the precarious state of banks. He highlights pressing issues in commercial real estate and private equity, revealing how falling valuations pose risks for banks. Whelan shares key indicators to watch in upcoming bank earnings, including loan demand and consumer vulnerability. He also emphasizes the challenges of non-bank lenders and shifting dynamics in mortgage markets, painting a complex picture of the financial landscape.
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Data Vacuum Fuels Market Unease
- The U.S. government shutdown delayed key economic data, increasing investor reliance on private indicators.
- That uncertainty may be driving defensive positioning like buying gold or watching bank signals closely.
Banks Offer Economic Clues
- Bank earnings act as a proxy for the economy because banks touch many companies and households.
- Their loan performance and delinquencies provide timely clues when official data are missing.
Size And Business Mix Drive Bank Performance
- Big banks have outperformed smaller regionals this year, reflecting differences in consumer versus corporate exposure.
- Large banks' diversified consumer and trading businesses have insulated them relative to middle-market-focused regionals.