The Briefing Who will take over from Ayatollah Khamenei? Plus: business news and Paris Fashion Week
Mar 4, 2026
Thomas Harding, Middle East security expert with deep Iran knowledge; Ewan Potts, Bloomberg markets correspondent tracking oil and market moves; Alexis Self, Monocle foreign editor on European diplomacy. They discuss who might succeed Ayatollah Khamenei, how Iran’s military options shape risk, European leaders’ diplomatic tightrope, Spain’s refusal to allow base use, and oil-driven market reactions.
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Iran's Leadership Is Shifting After Early Strikes
- Iran's command-and-control has been badly disrupted by early US and Israeli strikes.
- Thomas Harding says Ayatollah Khamenei's son Masoud has long been a likely successor and may be assuming leadership amid the chaos.
Teeth Remain Even If Iran Appears Shocked
- Iran retains substantial strike capacity despite losses: roughly 500 missiles and 2,000 drones used so far and perhaps 2,000 ballistic missiles plus tens of thousands of drones left.
- Harding warns Iran may hold back faster cruise missiles that can evade defences and damage civilian infrastructure and economies.
Deploy Defences Not Just Diplomatic Words
- Military positioning matters more than public rhetoric: deploying air-defence assets and carriers changes on-the-ground protection quickly.
- Harding notes Type 45 destroyers, carriers, Rafale jets and deployed frigates make a tangible defensive difference in the Gulf.