The HC Commodities Podcast Gulf War 3 and Global Financial Crisis 2? Special with Nick Kumleben
Mar 13, 2026
Nick Kumleben, Director at Greenmantle and geopolitical risk analyst, breaks down how the Israel–Iran conflict ripples through energy and finance. He discusses crude volatility, strategic oil reserves, chokepoint risks like the Strait of Hormuz, trader stress from margin calls, contagion into food and chips, and how different military or diplomatic outcomes could swing markets.
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LNG Impact Is Small In Share But Huge In Vulnerability
- LNG disruptions are smaller in global share but hit Asia hard because countries lack seasonal storage and rely on Qatari reliability.
- Nick warns a multi-month choke in a vital route can take months to operationally resolve, citing Black Sea 2022 parallels.
A Single Wreck Could Create Historic Supply Shock
- A tanker grounding or wreck in Hormuz with AIS off could create the largest oil supply disruption in recorded history.
- Nick compares peak-to-trough potential to or worse than 1973 and 1979 given concentration and modern trade flows.
Don't Expect Treasury To Step Into Commodities Trading
- Avoid assuming non-market actors (like Treasury) will stabilise price discovery; such interventions carry moral hazard and legal risk.
- Nick and CME leadership warn Treasury trading would threaten market integrity and is unlikely publicly.