Coffee House Shots John Curtice: what to expect in 2026
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Jan 2, 2026 Sir John Curtice discusses the remarkable shifts in UK politics and the historic rise of Reform UK, marking a new era in multiparty dynamics. He highlights the unprecedented dip in support for both Labour and Conservatives, while the Green Party enjoys a surge under new leadership. With cultural divides now rivaling economic issues, party loyalties are crumbling. Curtice delves into the political landscape of Scotland and Wales, noting potential challenges ahead for traditional parties as voter disillusionment grows.
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Breakdown Of The Two-Party Share
- For the first time both Labour and Conservatives combined poll under 45% of the vote, reflecting unprecedented collapse in major-party support.
- Five parties now average over 10%, showing deep fragmentation in the electorate.
Green Party Resurgence
- The Greens climbed from about 9% to roughly 13% after electing Zack Polanski, altering the party balance.
- That rise contributed to having five parties regularly polling above 10%.
UK Mirrors European Party Shifts
- The UK is following a wider Western European pattern of party-system change and fragmentation.
- Countries across Europe have seen new parties rise and old two-party systems collapse, making the UK unlikely to be immune.