The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Strike Targeting Problems in Ukraine || Peter Zeihan
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Mar 5, 2026 A deep look at Ukraine's growing long‑range drone strike capabilities and which Russian energy sites are now in range. Discussion of major oil projects like Tengiz and Kashagan and how pipeline routes shape strategic vulnerabilities. Examination of U.S. influence on targeting choices and the politics around shadow fleets and coordinated NATO actions.
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Ukrainian Drones Now Reach Deep Russian Targets
- Ukrainian drones have recently gained range, payload, and accuracy enabling strikes several hundred kilometers into Russian territory.
- Peter Zeihan cites repeated attacks hitting Novorossiysk, showing Ukraine can now reach key Black Sea energy terminals that were previously safe.
Tengiz Project Tied To Soviet-Era Pipeline Politics
- Tengiz is a long-standing Kazakh oil project with Chevron (50%) and ExxonMobil (25%) that sends crude through a pipeline via Russia to Novorossiysk.
- The pipeline is pieced from Soviet-era sections, letting Russia force-fee access and capping Kazakh export capacity.
Kashagan Adds Significant Caspian Supply To Novorossiysk
- Kashagan is an offshore Caspian project with ExxonMobil holding about one-sixth that contributes roughly 400,000 barrels per day when performing.
- Combined Kazakh output can exceed a million barrels per day routed through Novorossiysk, making the terminal strategically important.