Know Your Risk Podcast When Oil Ignores War
Mar 4, 2026
They explore why oil prices seem immune to a major shipping shock and the naval limits of escorting tankers. They talk storage drains, supply dynamics, and how human and insurance factors can block shipments. The conversation covers portfolio moves like raising cash, hedging with leveraged oil options, and sector winners and losers. Crypto’s place amid geopolitical risk and broader macro consequences are also debated.
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Market Is Ignoring A Real Oil Supply Shock
- Markets are ignoring a real supply shock as the Red Sea/Straights closure is happening now, not just a risk scenario.
- Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue $71–$76 oil doesn't price in multi-week disruptions that drain storage and shut production.
Storage Drawdown Is Masking True Scarcity
- The current price stability is being sustained by drawing down storage and shutting production, which masks true scarcity.
- Chase Taylor warns storage is limited (days to weeks) outside a few countries, so two-plus week closures meaningfully tighten supply.
Degross And Raise Cash During Binary Geopolitical Events
- Reduce gross exposure and raise cash as a defensive move amid geopolitical-driven market binary behavior.
- Zach Abraham says they degrossed, sold longs, and bought selective energy exposure while keeping gold positions.