Talks from the Hoover Institution

Niall Ferguson And Eyck Freymann Discuss Defending Taiwan: A Strategy To Prevent War With China

May 8, 2026
Eyck Freymann, author and Hoover fellow who specializes in geopolitics and deterrence, outlines a strategy to prevent war over Taiwan. He maps China's military and gray-zone playbook. He discusses Taiwan and U.S. readiness, economic coercion, supply‑chain decoupling, allied coordination, and the timing of potential Chinese action.
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INSIGHT

China's Full Menu Of Taiwan Options

  • Xi Jinping is developing a wide menu of military and gray-zone options against Taiwan beyond an amphibious invasion.
  • Eyck Freymann lists blockade, decapitation, bombardment, cyberattack, Coast Guard legal moves, and coercive mobilizations as complementary tools.
INSIGHT

Taiwan's Military Strength Masks Economic Vulnerabilities

  • Taiwan has geographic and defensive strengths but acute vulnerabilities in energy and indirect control of trade.
  • Freymann warns two weeks of gas reserves and potential quarantine/legal control by China could force Taiwan to sue for peace.
ADVICE

Treat Coast Guard Customs Moves As Strategic Crises

  • Do not accept passive acquiescence if China forces customs control over Taiwan's trade because long-term modernization and autonomy would be lost.
  • Freymann argues the US must treat such gray-zone moves as strategic crises, not minor paperwork changes.
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